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Galapagar vs RSC Internacional — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Galapagar
Galapagar
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
RSC Internacional
RSC Internacional
10/30/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 8Estadio Galapagar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Galapagar27%
×Draw23%
RSC Internacional50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galapagar
1.34
RSC Internacional
1.89

RSC Internacional creates 41% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 15 away

creates per match

Galapagar
1.55
RSC Internacional
2.33

allows per match

Galapagar
1.44
RSC Internacional
1.13

finishing

Galapagar+0.00on par
RSC Internacional+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galapagar ↓

RSC Internacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Galapagar or draw
50%
Galapagar or RSC Internacional
77%
Draw or RSC Internacional
73%

Winning margin

Galapagar wins by 2+
12%
RSC Internacional wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Galapagar 1+ goals
74%
Galapagar 2+ goals
39%
Galapagar 3+ goals
15%
RSC Internacional 1+ goals
85%
RSC Internacional 2+ goals
56%
RSC Internacional 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Galapagar (draw refunded)
35%
RSC Internacional (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galapagar at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.44 · 86 matches

RSC Internacional away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galapagar attack 1.55 + RSC Internacional defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.34

RSC Internacional attack 2.33 + Galapagar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Galapagar scores more
27%
level
23%
RSC Internacional scores more
50%

RSC Internacional at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "RSC Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Galapagar 0–5 RSC Internacional

RSC Internacional beat Galapagar 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Galapagar in Madrid.