RSC Internacional 2–1 Canillas: Result & Stats

RSC Internacional

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Canillas

10/23/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 7Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

RSC Internacional68%

×Draw19%

Canillas13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RSC InternacionalExpected goals in this matchCanillas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

0.85

RSC Internacional

2.19

Canillas

0.85

RSC Internacional creates 158% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 49 away

2.53

creates per match

1.04

0.67

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

RSC Internacional

2.53

Canillas

1.04

allows per match

RSC Internacional

0.67

Canillas

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RSC Internacional+0.00on par

Canillas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSC Internacional ↓

Canillas →

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

RSC Internacional or draw

87%

RSC Internacional or Canillas

81%

Draw or Canillas

32%

Winning margin

RSC Internacional wins by 2+

44%

Canillas wins by 2+

Team goals

RSC Internacional 1+ goals

89%

RSC Internacional 2+ goals

64%

RSC Internacional 3+ goals

37%

Canillas 1+ goals

57%

Canillas 2+ goals

21%

Canillas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

RSC Internacional (draw refunded)

84%

Canillas (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

RSC Internacional at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Canillas away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.86 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

RSC Internacional attack 2.53 + Canillas defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.19

Canillas attack 1.04 + RSC Internacional defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 68%?"

RSC Internacional scores more

68%

level

19%

Canillas scores more

13%

RSC Internacional at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "RSC Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RSC Internacional vs Canillas

RSC Internacional beat Canillas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 23, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 6 in Madrid.

RSC Internacional vs Canillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: RSC Internacional vs Canillas