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Canillas vs RSC Internacional — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Canillas
Canillas
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
RSC Internacional
RSC Internacional
2/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 22Estadio Canillas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Canillas21%
×Draw22%
RSC Internacional56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Canillas
1.08
RSC Internacional
1.89

RSC Internacional creates 75% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 15 away

creates per match

Canillas
1.04
RSC Internacional
2.33

allows per match

Canillas
1.45
RSC Internacional
1.13

finishing

Canillas+0.00on par
RSC Internacional+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canillas ↓

RSC Internacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Canillas or draw
44%
Canillas or RSC Internacional
78%
Draw or RSC Internacional
79%

Winning margin

Canillas wins by 2+
8%
RSC Internacional wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Canillas 1+ goals
66%
Canillas 2+ goals
29%
Canillas 3+ goals
10%
RSC Internacional 1+ goals
85%
RSC Internacional 2+ goals
56%
RSC Internacional 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Canillas (draw refunded)
28%
RSC Internacional (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canillas at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.45 · 49 matches

RSC Internacional away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canillas attack 1.04 + RSC Internacional defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.08

RSC Internacional attack 2.33 + Canillas defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Canillas scores more
21%
level
22%
RSC Internacional scores more
56%

RSC Internacional at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "RSC Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Canillas vs RSC Internacional

RSC Internacional beat Canillas 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Canillas in Madrid.