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RSC Internacional vs Alcobendas Sport — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

RSC Internacional
RSC Internacional
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Alcobendas Sport
Alcobendas Sport
4/23/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 30Ciudad Real Madrid Campo 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

RSC Internacional59%
×Draw22%
Alcobendas Sport19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RSC Internacional
1.92
Alcobendas Sport
0.99

RSC Internacional creates 94% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 117 away

creates per match

RSC Internacional
2.53
Alcobendas Sport
1.31

allows per match

RSC Internacional
0.67
Alcobendas Sport
1.30

finishing

RSC Internacional+0.00on par
Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSC Internacional ↓

Alcobendas Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

RSC Internacional or draw
81%
RSC Internacional or Alcobendas Sport
78%
Draw or Alcobendas Sport
41%

Winning margin

RSC Internacional wins by 2+
35%
Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

RSC Internacional 1+ goals
85%
RSC Internacional 2+ goals
57%
RSC Internacional 3+ goals
30%
Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals
63%
Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals
26%
Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

RSC Internacional (draw refunded)
76%
Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSC Internacional at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Alcobendas Sport away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.30 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSC Internacional attack 2.53 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.92

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.31 + RSC Internacional defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

RSC Internacional scores more
59%
level
22%
Alcobendas Sport scores more
19%

RSC Internacional at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "RSC Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: RSC Internacional 1–2 Alcobendas Sport

Alcobendas Sport beat RSC Internacional 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Real Madrid Campo 5 in Madrid.