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Alcobendas Sport vs RSC Internacional — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Alcobendas Sport
Alcobendas Sport
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
RSC Internacional
RSC Internacional
1/7/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 15Campos Municipales Valle de la Oliva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Alcobendas Sport26%
×Draw23%
RSC Internacional51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcobendas Sport
1.21
RSC Internacional
1.81

RSC Internacional creates 50% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 15 away

creates per match

Alcobendas Sport
1.30
RSC Internacional
2.33

allows per match

Alcobendas Sport
1.28
RSC Internacional
1.13

finishing

Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par
RSC Internacional+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcobendas Sport ↓

RSC Internacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Alcobendas Sport or draw
49%
Alcobendas Sport or RSC Internacional
77%
Draw or RSC Internacional
74%

Winning margin

Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+
10%
RSC Internacional wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals
70%
Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals
34%
Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals
12%
RSC Internacional 1+ goals
84%
RSC Internacional 2+ goals
54%
RSC Internacional 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)
33%
RSC Internacional (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcobendas Sport at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.28 · 115 matches

RSC Internacional away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.30 + RSC Internacional defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

RSC Internacional attack 2.33 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Alcobendas Sport scores more
26%
level
23%
RSC Internacional scores more
51%

RSC Internacional at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "RSC Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Alcobendas Sport 1–1 RSC Internacional

Alcobendas Sport and RSC Internacional drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 7, 2023.

The match was played at Campos Municipales Valle de la Oliva in Majadahonda.