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Rozova dolina vs Minyor Radnevo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Rozova dolina
Rozova dolina
CANC
00:00
Minyor Radnevo
Minyor Radnevo
4/11/2020Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 26Stadion Sevtopolis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Rozova dolina51%
×Draw25%
Minyor Radnevo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rozova dolina
1.57
Minyor Radnevo
0.98

Rozova dolina creates 60% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 27 away

creates per match

Rozova dolina
2.10
Minyor Radnevo
1.00

allows per match

Rozova dolina
0.96
Minyor Radnevo
1.04

finishing

Rozova dolina+0.00on par
Minyor Radnevo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rozova dolina ↓

Minyor Radnevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rozova dolina or draw
76%
Rozova dolina or Minyor Radnevo
75%
Draw or Minyor Radnevo
49%

Winning margin

Rozova dolina wins by 2+
27%
Minyor Radnevo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rozova dolina 1+ goals
79%
Rozova dolina 2+ goals
46%
Rozova dolina 3+ goals
21%
Minyor Radnevo 1+ goals
62%
Minyor Radnevo 2+ goals
26%
Minyor Radnevo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rozova dolina (draw refunded)
68%
Minyor Radnevo (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rozova dolina at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.96 · 135 matches

Minyor Radnevo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rozova dolina attack 2.10 + Minyor Radnevo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.57

Minyor Radnevo attack 1.00 + Rozova dolina defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rozova dolina scores more
51%
level
25%
Minyor Radnevo scores more
24%

Rozova dolina at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rozova dolina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rozova dolina vs Minyor Radnevo — Match Preview

Rozova dolina face Minyor Radnevo on April 11, 2020 in this Third League - Southeast fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Rozova dolina host Minyor Radnevo at Stadion Sevtopolis.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.