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Minyor Radnevo vs Rozova dolina — Third League - Southeast 2018

Minyor Radnevo
Minyor Radnevo
FT
3 – 1
Rozova dolina
Rozova dolina
4/13/2019Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 26Stadion Minyor (Radnevo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Minyor Radnevo61%
×Draw23%
Rozova dolina16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minyor Radnevo
1.79
Rozova dolina
0.78

Minyor Radnevo creates 129% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 136 away

creates per match

Minyor Radnevo
1.85
Rozova dolina
1.13

allows per match

Minyor Radnevo
0.44
Rozova dolina
1.74

finishing

Minyor Radnevo+0.00on par
Rozova dolina+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minyor Radnevo ↓

Rozova dolina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Minyor Radnevo or draw
84%
Minyor Radnevo or Rozova dolina
77%
Draw or Rozova dolina
39%

Winning margin

Minyor Radnevo wins by 2+
35%
Rozova dolina wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Minyor Radnevo 1+ goals
83%
Minyor Radnevo 2+ goals
53%
Minyor Radnevo 3+ goals
26%
Rozova dolina 1+ goals
54%
Rozova dolina 2+ goals
18%
Rozova dolina 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Minyor Radnevo (draw refunded)
79%
Rozova dolina (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minyor Radnevo at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.44 · 27 matches

Rozova dolina away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.74 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minyor Radnevo attack 1.85 + Rozova dolina defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.79

Rozova dolina attack 1.13 + Minyor Radnevo defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Minyor Radnevo scores more
61%
level
23%
Rozova dolina scores more
16%

Minyor Radnevo at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Minyor Radnevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Minyor Radnevo 3–1 Rozova dolina

Minyor Radnevo beat Rozova dolina 3-1 in Third League - Southeast on April 13, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Minyor (Radnevo).