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Rozova dolina vs Beroe II — Third League - Southeast 2018

Rozova dolina
Rozova dolina
FT
2 – 0
Beroe II
Beroe II
4/22/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 31Stadion Sevtopolis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Rozova dolina72%
×Draw17%
Beroe II11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rozova dolina
2.44
Beroe II
0.86

Rozova dolina creates 184% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 55 away

creates per match

Rozova dolina
2.10
Beroe II
0.76

allows per match

Rozova dolina
0.96
Beroe II
2.78

finishing

Rozova dolina+0.00on par
Beroe II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rozova dolina ↓

Beroe II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Rozova dolina or draw
89%
Rozova dolina or Beroe II
83%
Draw or Beroe II
28%

Winning margin

Rozova dolina wins by 2+
49%
Beroe II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Rozova dolina 1+ goals
91%
Rozova dolina 2+ goals
70%
Rozova dolina 3+ goals
43%
Beroe II 1+ goals
58%
Beroe II 2+ goals
21%
Beroe II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rozova dolina (draw refunded)
86%
Beroe II (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rozova dolina at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.96 · 135 matches

Beroe II away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rozova dolina attack 2.10 + Beroe II defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.44

Beroe II attack 0.76 + Rozova dolina defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Rozova dolina scores more
72%
level
17%
Beroe II scores more
11%

Rozova dolina at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Rozova dolina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rozova dolina vs Beroe II

Rozova dolina beat Beroe II 2-0 in Third League - Southeast on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sevtopolis in Kazanlak.