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Beroe II vs Rozova dolina — Third League - Southeast 2018

Beroe II
Beroe II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Rozova dolina
Rozova dolina
2/24/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 21Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Beroe II38%
×Draw25%
Rozova dolina37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beroe II
1.48
Rozova dolina
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 136 away

creates per match

Beroe II
1.22
Rozova dolina
1.13

allows per match

Beroe II
1.78
Rozova dolina
1.74

finishing

Beroe II+0.00on par
Rozova dolina+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beroe II ↓

Rozova dolina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Beroe II or draw
63%
Beroe II or Rozova dolina
75%
Draw or Rozova dolina
62%

Winning margin

Beroe II wins by 2+
18%
Rozova dolina wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Beroe II 1+ goals
77%
Beroe II 2+ goals
43%
Beroe II 3+ goals
19%
Rozova dolina 1+ goals
77%
Rozova dolina 2+ goals
43%
Rozova dolina 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Beroe II (draw refunded)
51%
Rozova dolina (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beroe II at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

Rozova dolina away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.74 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beroe II attack 1.22 + Rozova dolina defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.48

Rozova dolina attack 1.13 + Beroe II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Beroe II scores more
38%
level
25%
Rozova dolina scores more
37%

Beroe II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Beroe II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Beroe II 2–3 Rozova dolina

Rozova dolina beat Beroe II 3-2 in Third League - Southeast on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Stara Zagora.