Royal Pari 1–0 Macara: Result & Stats

Royal Pari

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Macara

John Jairo Mosquera 49'

5/21/2019

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 2nd RoundEstadio Ramon Tahuichi Aguilera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Royal Pari33%

×Draw29%

Macara39%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Royal PariExpected goals in this matchMacara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.17

Royal Pari

1.05

Macara

1.17

Macara creates 11% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

1.67

creates per match

1.00

1.33

allows per match

0.43

creates per match

Royal Pari

1.67

Macara

1.00

allows per match

Royal Pari

1.33

Macara

0.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Royal Pari+0.00on par

Macara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Royal Pari ↓

Macara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Royal Pari or draw

61%

Royal Pari or Macara

71%

Draw or Macara

67%

Winning margin

Royal Pari wins by 2+

13%

Macara wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Royal Pari 1+ goals

65%

Royal Pari 2+ goals

28%

Royal Pari 3+ goals

9%

Macara 1+ goals

69%

Macara 2+ goals

33%

Macara 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Royal Pari (draw refunded)

46%

Macara (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Royal Pari at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Macara away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Royal Pari attack 1.67 + Macara defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 1.05

Macara attack 1.00 + Royal Pari defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Royal Pari scores more

33%

level

29%

Macara scores more

39%

Macara at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Macara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

John Jairo Mosquera

Royal Pari · F

7.5

Match Events

43'

Juan Carlos Zampiery

45'

Leonel Quinonez

49'

John Jairo Mosquera

57'

Carlos Arboleda← Armando Gomez

58'

Jose Luis Chavez

65'

Janner Corozo← Jhonatan De la Cruz

66'

Moises David Corozo Canizares

68'

Saulo Guerra

73'

Carlos Feraud← Mario Rizotto

74'

Omar Siles← Mauro Ramiro Milano

78'

Marco Antonio Barrios← Juan Carlos Zampiery

81'

Omar Siles

81'

Brahian Egüez← Saulo Guerra

83'

Carlos Arboleda

88'

Carlos Feraud

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RoyalMacara

Overview

43%Possession57%

7Total Shots6

0Corners5

24Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots6

1On Target1

4Off Target4

2Blocked1

5Inside Box2

2Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

368Total Passes467

265Accurate Passes360

72%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

24Fouls16

4Yellow Cards4

2Offsides2

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Royal Pari 1–0 Macara

Royal Pari beat Macara 1-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 21, 2019.

Goals: John Jairo Mosquera (49').

Macara controlled possession (57%) and registered 6 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Ramon Tahuichi Aguilera in Santa Cruz de la Sierra.

Royal Pari vs Macara — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Royal Pari 1–0 Macara