Macara 3–2 Royal Pari: Result & Stats

Macara

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Royal Pari

Flavio Ciampichetti 84' (pen)

Galo Corozo 29'

Jhonatan De la Cruz 22' (pen)

Jose Luis Chavez 90'

Mauro Ramiro Milano 34'

5/30/2019

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 2nd RoundEstadio Bellavista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Macara60%

×Draw20%

Royal Pari20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MacaraExpected goals in this matchRoyal Pari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.17

Macara

2.17

Royal Pari

1.17

Macara creates 85% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.67

creates per match

1.00

1.33

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Macara

1.67

Royal Pari

1.00

allows per match

Macara

1.33

Royal Pari

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Macara+0.00on par

Royal Pari+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macara ↓

Royal Pari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Macara or draw

80%

Macara or Royal Pari

80%

Draw or Royal Pari

40%

Winning margin

Macara wins by 2+

37%

Royal Pari wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Macara 1+ goals

89%

Macara 2+ goals

64%

Macara 3+ goals

36%

Royal Pari 1+ goals

69%

Royal Pari 2+ goals

33%

Royal Pari 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Macara (draw refunded)

75%

Royal Pari (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macara at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Royal Pari away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macara attack 1.67 + Royal Pari defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.17

Royal Pari attack 1.00 + Macara defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Macara scores more

60%

level

20%

Royal Pari scores more

20%

Macara at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Macara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Flavio Ciampichetti

Macara · F

7.6

Match Events

22'

Jhonatan De la CruzPenalty

23'

Cristian Coímbra

26'

Omar Siles← Omar Vasquez

29'

Galo Corozo

34'

Mauro Ramiro Milano↳ John Jairo Mosquera

45'

Michael Estrada

56'

Carlos Arboleda← Jhonatan De la Cruz

60'

Carlos Feraud

63'

Omar Siles

67'

Janner Corozo← Armando Gomez

69'

Flavio Ciampichetti← Michael Estrada

73'

Alan Loras← Layonel Figueroa

74'

Moises David Corozo Canizares

77'

Juan Carlos Zampiery

81'

Mariano Brau

83'

Mauro Ramiro Milano

84'

Flavio CiampichettiPenalty

85'

Janner Corozo

85'

Flavio Ciampichetti

85'

Saulo Guerra← Cristian Coímbra

90'

Javier Burrai

90'

Jose Luis Chavez↳ Thiago

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MacaraRoyal

Overview

64%Possession36%

21Total Shots6

11Corners6

23Fouls20

Shots

21Total Shots6

9On Target3

10Off Target3

2Blocked0

10Inside Box3

11Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

353Total Passes210

288Accurate Passes135

82%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

23Fouls20

6Yellow Cards5

1Offsides1