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Royal Pari vs Jorge Wilstermann — Primera División 2026

Royal Pari
Royal Pari
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jorge Wilstermann
Jorge Wilstermann
11/26/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 32Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Royal Pari47%
×Draw25%
Jorge Wilstermann28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Royal Pari
1.60
Jorge Wilstermann
1.19

Royal Pari creates 34% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 123 away

creates per match

Royal Pari
1.68
Jorge Wilstermann
1.12

allows per match

Royal Pari
1.25
Jorge Wilstermann
1.52

finishing

Royal Pari+0.00on par
Jorge Wilstermann+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Royal Pari ↓

Jorge Wilstermann →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Royal Pari or draw
72%
Royal Pari or Jorge Wilstermann
75%
Draw or Jorge Wilstermann
53%

Winning margin

Royal Pari wins by 2+
24%
Jorge Wilstermann wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Royal Pari 1+ goals
80%
Royal Pari 2+ goals
47%
Royal Pari 3+ goals
22%
Jorge Wilstermann 1+ goals
70%
Jorge Wilstermann 2+ goals
33%
Jorge Wilstermann 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Royal Pari (draw refunded)
62%
Jorge Wilstermann (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Royal Pari at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.25 · 111 matches

Jorge Wilstermann away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.52 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Royal Pari attack 1.68 + Jorge Wilstermann defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.60

Jorge Wilstermann attack 1.12 + Royal Pari defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Royal Pari scores more
47%
level
25%
Jorge Wilstermann scores more
28%

Royal Pari at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Royal Pari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Royal Pari vs Jorge Wilstermann

Royal Pari and Jorge Wilstermann drew 0-0 in Primera División on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas in Santa Cruz de la Sierra.