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Jorge Wilstermann vs Royal Pari — Primera División 2026

Jorge Wilstermann
Jorge Wilstermann
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Royal Pari
Royal Pari
9/5/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 15Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Jorge Wilstermann53%
×Draw23%
Royal Pari24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jorge Wilstermann
1.83
Royal Pari
1.15

Jorge Wilstermann creates 59% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 112 away

creates per match

Jorge Wilstermann
1.74
Royal Pari
1.17

allows per match

Jorge Wilstermann
1.14
Royal Pari
1.93

finishing

Jorge Wilstermann+0.00on par
Royal Pari+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jorge Wilstermann ↓

Royal Pari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Jorge Wilstermann or draw
76%
Jorge Wilstermann or Royal Pari
77%
Draw or Royal Pari
47%

Winning margin

Jorge Wilstermann wins by 2+
30%
Royal Pari wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jorge Wilstermann 1+ goals
84%
Jorge Wilstermann 2+ goals
54%
Jorge Wilstermann 3+ goals
28%
Royal Pari 1+ goals
68%
Royal Pari 2+ goals
32%
Royal Pari 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Jorge Wilstermann (draw refunded)
69%
Royal Pari (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jorge Wilstermann at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.14 · 124 matches

Royal Pari away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.93 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jorge Wilstermann attack 1.74 + Royal Pari defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.83

Royal Pari attack 1.17 + Jorge Wilstermann defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Jorge Wilstermann scores more
53%
level
23%
Royal Pari scores more
24%

Jorge Wilstermann at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Jorge Wilstermann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Jorge Wilstermann 2–1 Royal Pari

Jorge Wilstermann beat Royal Pari 2-1 in Primera División on September 5, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Félix Capriles in Cochabamba.