Royal Pari 2–2 Independiente Petrolero

Royal Pari

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Independiente Petrolero

5/28/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 4Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Royal Pari50%

×Draw23%

Independiente Petrolero27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Royal PariExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Petrolero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.25

Royal Pari

1.80

Independiente Petrolero

1.25

Royal Pari creates 44% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 91 away

1.68

creates per match

1.26

1.25

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Royal Pari

1.68

Independiente Petrolero

1.26

allows per match

Royal Pari

1.25

Independiente Petrolero

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Royal Pari+0.00on par

Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Royal Pari ↓

Independiente Petrolero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Royal Pari or draw

73%

Royal Pari or Independiente Petrolero

77%

Draw or Independiente Petrolero

50%

Winning margin

Royal Pari wins by 2+

28%

Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Royal Pari 1+ goals

83%

Royal Pari 2+ goals

54%

Royal Pari 3+ goals

27%

Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals

71%

Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals

36%

Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Royal Pari (draw refunded)

65%

Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Royal Pari at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.25 · 111 matches

Independiente Petrolero away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.93 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Royal Pari attack 1.68 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.80

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.26 + Royal Pari defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Royal Pari scores more

50%

level

23%

Independiente Petrolero scores more

27%

Royal Pari at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Royal Pari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff