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Independiente Petrolero vs Royal Pari — Primera División 2026

Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Royal Pari
Royal Pari
10/24/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 19Estadio Olímpico Patria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Independiente Petrolero52%
×Draw23%
Royal Pari25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Petrolero
1.84
Royal Pari
1.19

Independiente Petrolero creates 55% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 112 away

creates per match

Independiente Petrolero
1.75
Royal Pari
1.17

allows per match

Independiente Petrolero
1.21
Royal Pari
1.93

finishing

Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par
Royal Pari+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Petrolero ↓

Royal Pari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Independiente Petrolero or draw
75%
Independiente Petrolero or Royal Pari
77%
Draw or Royal Pari
48%

Winning margin

Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+
29%
Royal Pari wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals
84%
Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals
55%
Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals
28%
Royal Pari 1+ goals
70%
Royal Pari 2+ goals
33%
Royal Pari 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)
68%
Royal Pari (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Petrolero at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Royal Pari away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.93 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.75 + Royal Pari defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.84

Royal Pari attack 1.17 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Independiente Petrolero scores more
52%
level
23%
Royal Pari scores more
25%

Independiente Petrolero at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Independiente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Independiente Petrolero 2–2 Royal Pari

Independiente Petrolero and Royal Pari drew 2-2 in Primera División on October 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Patria in Sucre.