Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Royal Leopards vs Madlenya — Premier League 2020

Royal Leopards
Royal Leopards
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Madlenya
Madlenya
2/18/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Royal Leopards62%
×Draw22%
Madlenya16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Royal Leopards
1.88
Madlenya
0.83

Royal Leopards creates 127% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 41 away

creates per match

Royal Leopards
1.86
Madlenya
0.85

allows per match

Royal Leopards
0.81
Madlenya
1.90

finishing

Royal Leopards+0.00on par
Madlenya+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Royal Leopards ↓

Madlenya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Royal Leopards or draw
84%
Royal Leopards or Madlenya
78%
Draw or Madlenya
38%

Winning margin

Royal Leopards wins by 2+
37%
Madlenya wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Royal Leopards 1+ goals
85%
Royal Leopards 2+ goals
56%
Royal Leopards 3+ goals
29%
Madlenya 1+ goals
56%
Madlenya 2+ goals
20%
Madlenya 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Royal Leopards (draw refunded)
79%
Madlenya (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Royal Leopards at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.81 · 84 matches

Madlenya away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.90 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Royal Leopards attack 1.86 + Madlenya defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.88

Madlenya attack 0.85 + Royal Leopards defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Royal Leopards scores more
62%
level
22%
Madlenya scores more
16%

Royal Leopards at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Royal Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Royal Leopards 2–0 Madlenya

Royal Leopards beat Madlenya 2-0 in Premier League on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Prince of Wales Stadium in Mbabane.