Madlenya 2–1 Royal Leopards: Result & Stats

Madlenya

FT

2 – 1

Royal Leopards

10/1/2023

Premier League · Round 3Kalanga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Madlenya21%

×Draw25%

Royal Leopards54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MadlenyaExpected goals in this matchRoyal Leopards

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

1.60

Madlenya

0.89

Royal Leopards

1.60

Royal Leopards creates 80% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 85 away

0.82

creates per match

1.88

1.32

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Madlenya

0.82

Royal Leopards

1.88

allows per match

Madlenya

1.32

Royal Leopards

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Madlenya+0.00on par

Royal Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madlenya ↓

Royal Leopards →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–211%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Madlenya or draw

46%

Madlenya or Royal Leopards

75%

Draw or Royal Leopards

79%

Winning margin

Madlenya wins by 2+

7%

Royal Leopards wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Madlenya 1+ goals

59%

Madlenya 2+ goals

22%

Madlenya 3+ goals

6%

Royal Leopards 1+ goals

80%

Royal Leopards 2+ goals

47%

Royal Leopards 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Madlenya (draw refunded)

28%

Royal Leopards (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Madlenya at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.32 · 40 matches

Royal Leopards away — creates 1.88, concedes 0.96 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Madlenya attack 0.82 + Royal Leopards defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.89

Royal Leopards attack 1.88 + Madlenya defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Madlenya scores more

21%

level

25%

Royal Leopards scores more

54%

Royal Leopards at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Royal Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff