Royal Excel Mouscron 2–2 OH Leuven: Result & Stats

Royal Excel Mouscron

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

OH Leuven

Nuno da Costa 77', 71'

D. Hubert 55' (pen)

T. Vlietinck 42'

12/15/2020

Jupiler Pro League · Round 18Stade Le Canonnier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Royal Excel Mouscron46%

×Draw26%

OH Leuven28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Royal Excel MouscronExpected goals in this matchOH Leuven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.10

Royal Excel Mouscron

1.50

OH Leuven

1.10

Royal Excel Mouscron creates 36% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 112 away

1.23

creates per match

1.17

1.04

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Royal Excel Mouscron

1.23

OH Leuven

1.17

allows per match

Royal Excel Mouscron

1.04

OH Leuven

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Royal Excel Mouscron+0.00on par

OH Leuven+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Royal Excel Mouscron ↓

OH Leuven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Royal Excel Mouscron or draw

72%

Royal Excel Mouscron or OH Leuven

74%

Draw or OH Leuven

54%

Winning margin

Royal Excel Mouscron wins by 2+

23%

OH Leuven wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Royal Excel Mouscron 1+ goals

78%

Royal Excel Mouscron 2+ goals

44%

Royal Excel Mouscron 3+ goals

19%

OH Leuven 1+ goals

67%

OH Leuven 2+ goals

30%

OH Leuven 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Royal Excel Mouscron (draw refunded)

63%

OH Leuven (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Royal Excel Mouscron at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.04 · 48 matches

OH Leuven away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.78 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Royal Excel Mouscron attack 1.23 + OH Leuven defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.50

OH Leuven attack 1.17 + Royal Excel Mouscron defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Royal Excel Mouscron scores more

46%

level

26%

OH Leuven scores more

28%

Royal Excel Mouscron at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Royal Excel Mouscron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

30'

31'

31'

42'

T. Vlietinck↳ C. De Norre

44'

D. Hočko← M. Bakić

54'

Hervé Koffi

55'

D. HubertPenalty

56'

S. Tabekou← D. Mohamed

59'

Fabrice Olinga

70'

B. Badibanga← F. Olinga

71'

Nuno da Costa↳ S. Tabekou

74'

Daan Vekemans

77'

Nuno da Costa

82'

O. Myny← T. Vlietinck

90'

Serge Tabekou

90'

J. Eppiah← Musa Al-Taamari

Statistics

RoyalOH

Overview

6Corners4

Discipline

6Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0