OH Leuven vs Royal Excel Mouscron — Jupiler Pro League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 47+ matches
OH Leuven46%
Royal Excel Mouscron29%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
OH Leuven creates 32% more chances
Season form · 112 home / 47 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
OH Leuven ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
OH Leuven at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.26 · 112 matches
Royal Excel Mouscron away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.64 · 47 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
OH Leuven attack 1.38 + Royal Excel Mouscron defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.51
Royal Excel Mouscron attack 1.02 + OH Leuven defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.14
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
OH Leuven at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "OH Leuven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Genk
Club Brugge KV
Standard Liege
Anderlecht
Gent
Antwerp
St. Truiden
Kortrijk
CharleroiRoyal Excel Mouscron
Zulte Waregem
AS Eupen
Cercle Brugge
Oostende
Waasland-beveren
LokerenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
OH Leuven host Royal Excel Mouscron on Saturday, 3 October 2015 at 18:00. The match is part of the Jupiler Pro League 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: OH Leuven vs Royal Excel Mouscron
OH Leuven and Royal Excel Mouscron drew 1-1 in Jupiler Pro League on October 3, 2015.
Goals: J. Michel (73' pen), J. Bostock (83' pen).
The match was played at Stadion Den Dreef (Heverlee).