Royal AM 0–1 Polokwane City: Result & Stats

Royal AM

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Polokwane City

10/30/2024

Premier Soccer League · Round 5Harry Gwala Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Royal AM40%

×Draw32%

Polokwane City28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Royal AMExpected goals in this matchPolokwane City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.83

Royal AM

1.06

Polokwane City

0.83

Royal AM creates 28% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 75 away

1.08

creates per match

0.68

0.98

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Royal AM

1.08

Polokwane City

0.68

allows per match

Royal AM

0.98

Polokwane City

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Royal AM+0.00on par

Polokwane City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Royal AM ↓

Polokwane City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Royal AM or draw

72%

Royal AM or Polokwane City

68%

Draw or Polokwane City

60%

Winning margin

Royal AM wins by 2+

16%

Polokwane City wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Royal AM 1+ goals

65%

Royal AM 2+ goals

29%

Royal AM 3+ goals

9%

Polokwane City 1+ goals

56%

Polokwane City 2+ goals

20%

Polokwane City 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Royal AM (draw refunded)

59%

Polokwane City (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Royal AM at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.98 · 51 matches

Polokwane City away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.05 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Royal AM attack 1.08 + Polokwane City defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Polokwane City attack 0.68 + Royal AM defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Royal AM scores more

40%

level

32%

Polokwane City scores more

28%

Royal AM at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Royal AM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff