Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Polokwane City vs Royal AM — Premier Soccer League 2018

Polokwane City
Polokwane City
CANC
17:30
Royal AM
Royal AM
3/5/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 17Old Peter Mokaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Polokwane City43%
×Draw28%
Royal AM30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polokwane City
1.31
Royal AM
1.04

Polokwane City creates 26% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 50 away

creates per match

Polokwane City
1.00
Royal AM
1.10

allows per match

Polokwane City
0.99
Royal AM
1.62

finishing

Polokwane City+0.00on par
Royal AM+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polokwane City ↓

Royal AM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Polokwane City or draw
70%
Polokwane City or Royal AM
72%
Draw or Royal AM
57%

Winning margin

Polokwane City wins by 2+
20%
Royal AM wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Polokwane City 1+ goals
73%
Polokwane City 2+ goals
38%
Polokwane City 3+ goals
14%
Royal AM 1+ goals
65%
Royal AM 2+ goals
28%
Royal AM 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Polokwane City (draw refunded)
59%
Royal AM (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polokwane City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.99 · 74 matches

Royal AM away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.62 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polokwane City attack 1.00 + Royal AM defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.31

Royal AM attack 1.10 + Polokwane City defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Polokwane City scores more
43%
level
28%
Royal AM scores more
30%

Polokwane City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Polokwane City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Polokwane City host Royal AM

March 5, 2025: Polokwane City take on Royal AM in Premier Soccer League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Polokwane City host Royal AM at Old Peter Mokaba Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.