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Royal AM vs Kaizer Chiefs — Premier Soccer League 2018

Royal AM
Royal AM
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kaizer Chiefs
Kaizer Chiefs
2/18/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 14Harry Gwala Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Royal AM35%
×Draw30%
Kaizer Chiefs35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Royal AM
1.02
Kaizer Chiefs
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 119 away

creates per match

Royal AM
1.08
Kaizer Chiefs
1.07

allows per match

Royal AM
0.98
Kaizer Chiefs
0.95

finishing

Royal AM+0.00on par
Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Royal AM ↓

Kaizer Chiefs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Royal AM or draw
65%
Royal AM or Kaizer Chiefs
70%
Draw or Kaizer Chiefs
65%

Winning margin

Royal AM wins by 2+
13%
Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Royal AM 1+ goals
64%
Royal AM 2+ goals
27%
Royal AM 3+ goals
8%
Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals
64%
Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals
27%
Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Royal AM (draw refunded)
50%
Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Royal AM at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.98 · 51 matches

Kaizer Chiefs away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.95 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Royal AM attack 1.08 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.02

Kaizer Chiefs attack 1.07 + Royal AM defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Royal AM scores more
35%
level
30%
Kaizer Chiefs scores more
35%

Royal AM at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Royal AM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Royal AM vs Kaizer Chiefs

Royal AM and Kaizer Chiefs drew 0-0 in Premier Soccer League on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Harry Gwala Stadium in Pietermaritzburg, KN.