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Kaizer Chiefs vs Royal AM — Premier Soccer League 2018

Kaizer Chiefs
Kaizer Chiefs
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Royal AM
Royal AM
11/30/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 6Peter Mokaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Kaizer Chiefs44%
×Draw27%
Royal AM29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaizer Chiefs
1.39
Royal AM
1.06

Kaizer Chiefs creates 31% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 50 away

creates per match

Kaizer Chiefs
1.16
Royal AM
1.10

allows per match

Kaizer Chiefs
1.02
Royal AM
1.62

finishing

Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par
Royal AM+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaizer Chiefs ↓

Royal AM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kaizer Chiefs or draw
71%
Kaizer Chiefs or Royal AM
73%
Draw or Royal AM
56%

Winning margin

Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+
21%
Royal AM wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals
75%
Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals
40%
Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals
16%
Royal AM 1+ goals
65%
Royal AM 2+ goals
29%
Royal AM 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)
61%
Royal AM (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaizer Chiefs at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

Royal AM away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.62 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaizer Chiefs attack 1.16 + Royal AM defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.39

Royal AM attack 1.10 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kaizer Chiefs scores more
44%
level
27%
Royal AM scores more
29%

Kaizer Chiefs at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kaizer Chiefs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaizer Chiefs vs Royal AM

Kaizer Chiefs and Royal AM drew 2-2 in Premier Soccer League on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Peter Mokaba Stadium in Pietersburg.