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ROW Rybnik vs Polonia-Stal Świdnica — III Liga - Group 3 2020

ROW Rybnik
ROW Rybnik
FT
0 – 0
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
5/9/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 30Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

ROW Rybnik49%
×Draw21%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ROW Rybnik
2.05
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.58

ROW Rybnik creates 30% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

ROW Rybnik
1.00
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.28

allows per match

ROW Rybnik
1.89
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
3.11

finishing

ROW Rybnik+0.00on par
Polonia-Stal Świdnica+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ROW Rybnik ↓

Polonia-Stal Świdnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

ROW Rybnik or draw
70%
ROW Rybnik or Polonia-Stal Świdnica
79%
Draw or Polonia-Stal Świdnica
51%

Winning margin

ROW Rybnik wins by 2+
28%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

ROW Rybnik 1+ goals
87%
ROW Rybnik 2+ goals
61%
ROW Rybnik 3+ goals
33%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 1+ goals
79%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2+ goals
47%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

ROW Rybnik (draw refunded)
62%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ROW Rybnik at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.89 · 18 matches

Polonia-Stal Świdnica away — creates 1.28, concedes 3.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ROW Rybnik attack 1.00 + Polonia-Stal Świdnica defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.05

Polonia-Stal Świdnica attack 1.28 + ROW Rybnik defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

ROW Rybnik scores more
49%
level
21%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica scores more
30%

ROW Rybnik at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "ROW Rybnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: ROW Rybnik 0–0 Polonia-Stal Świdnica

ROW Rybnik and Polonia-Stal Świdnica drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Rybnik.