Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2–1 ROW Rybnik

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

FT

2 – 1

ROW Rybnik

10/7/2020

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 11Stadion OSiR w Świdnicy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Polonia-Stal Świdnica33%

×Draw22%

ROW Rybnik45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polonia-Stal ŚwidnicaExpected goals in this matchROW Rybnik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

2.00

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

1.69

ROW Rybnik

2.00

ROW Rybnik creates 18% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

1.11

creates per match

1.50

2.50

allows per match

2.28

creates per match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

1.11

ROW Rybnik

1.50

allows per match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

2.50

ROW Rybnik

2.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polonia-Stal Świdnica+0.00on par

ROW Rybnik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia-Stal Świdnica ↓

ROW Rybnik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Polonia-Stal Świdnica or draw

55%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica or ROW Rybnik

78%

Draw or ROW Rybnik

67%

Winning margin

Polonia-Stal Świdnica wins by 2+

16%

ROW Rybnik wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 1+ goals

82%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2+ goals

50%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3+ goals

24%

ROW Rybnik 1+ goals

86%

ROW Rybnik 2+ goals

59%

ROW Rybnik 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Polonia-Stal Świdnica (draw refunded)

42%

ROW Rybnik (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia-Stal Świdnica at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.50 · 18 matches

ROW Rybnik away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica attack 1.11 + ROW Rybnik defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.69

ROW Rybnik attack 1.50 + Polonia-Stal Świdnica defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Polonia-Stal Świdnica scores more

33%

level

22%

ROW Rybnik scores more

45%

ROW Rybnik at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "ROW Rybnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff