ROW Rybnik 2–2 Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

ROW Rybnik

FT

2 – 2

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

8/29/2020

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 6Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

ROW Rybnik33%

×Draw24%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ROW RybnikExpected goals in this matchGwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.64

ROW Rybnik

1.42

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.64

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry creates 15% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 69 away

1.00

creates per match

1.39

1.89

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

ROW Rybnik

1.00

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.39

allows per match

ROW Rybnik

1.89

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ROW Rybnik+0.00on par

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ROW Rybnik ↓

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

ROW Rybnik or draw

57%

ROW Rybnik or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

76%

Draw or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

67%

Winning margin

ROW Rybnik wins by 2+

15%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

ROW Rybnik 1+ goals

76%

ROW Rybnik 2+ goals

41%

ROW Rybnik 3+ goals

17%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals

81%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals

49%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

ROW Rybnik (draw refunded)

44%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ROW Rybnik at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.89 · 18 matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.84 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ROW Rybnik attack 1.00 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.42

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.39 + ROW Rybnik defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

ROW Rybnik scores more

33%

level

24%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more

43%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff