Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry vs ROW Rybnik — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
FT
2 – 1
ROW Rybnik
ROW Rybnik
4/10/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 25Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry47%
×Draw22%
ROW Rybnik31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.88
ROW Rybnik
1.48

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry creates 27% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 18 away

creates per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.49
ROW Rybnik
1.50

allows per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.45
ROW Rybnik
2.28

finishing

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par
ROW Rybnik+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry ↓

ROW Rybnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or draw
69%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or ROW Rybnik
78%
Draw or ROW Rybnik
53%

Winning margin

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
26%
ROW Rybnik wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
85%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
56%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
29%
ROW Rybnik 1+ goals
77%
ROW Rybnik 2+ goals
43%
ROW Rybnik 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
61%
ROW Rybnik (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

ROW Rybnik away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.49 + ROW Rybnik defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.88

ROW Rybnik attack 1.50 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
47%
level
22%
ROW Rybnik scores more
31%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry vs ROW Rybnik

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry beat ROW Rybnik 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek in Tarnowskie Góry.