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ROW Rybnik vs Gać Oława — III Liga - Group 3 2020

ROW Rybnik
ROW Rybnik
FT
1 – 1
Gać Oława
Gać Oława
8/12/2020III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 3Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

ROW Rybnik46%
×Draw23%
Gać Oława31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ROW Rybnik
1.78
Gać Oława
1.44

ROW Rybnik creates 24% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 35 away

creates per match

ROW Rybnik
1.00
Gać Oława
1.00

allows per match

ROW Rybnik
1.89
Gać Oława
2.57

finishing

ROW Rybnik+0.00on par
Gać Oława+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ROW Rybnik ↓

Gać Oława →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

ROW Rybnik or draw
69%
ROW Rybnik or Gać Oława
77%
Draw or Gać Oława
54%

Winning margin

ROW Rybnik wins by 2+
24%
Gać Oława wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

ROW Rybnik 1+ goals
83%
ROW Rybnik 2+ goals
53%
ROW Rybnik 3+ goals
26%
Gać Oława 1+ goals
76%
Gać Oława 2+ goals
42%
Gać Oława 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

ROW Rybnik (draw refunded)
59%
Gać Oława (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ROW Rybnik at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.89 · 18 matches

Gać Oława away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.57 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ROW Rybnik attack 1.00 + Gać Oława defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.78

Gać Oława attack 1.00 + ROW Rybnik defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ROW Rybnik scores more
46%
level
23%
Gać Oława scores more
31%

ROW Rybnik at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ROW Rybnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: ROW Rybnik 1–1 Gać Oława

ROW Rybnik and Gać Oława drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Rybnik.