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Gać Oława vs ROW Rybnik — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Gać Oława
Gać Oława
FT
1 – 2
ROW Rybnik
ROW Rybnik
3/20/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 22Stadion w Gaciu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Gać Oława37%
×Draw22%
ROW Rybnik41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gać Oława
1.78
ROW Rybnik
1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 18 away

creates per match

Gać Oława
1.29
ROW Rybnik
1.50

allows per match

Gać Oława
2.23
ROW Rybnik
2.28

finishing

Gać Oława+0.00on par
ROW Rybnik+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gać Oława ↓

ROW Rybnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Gać Oława or draw
59%
Gać Oława or ROW Rybnik
78%
Draw or ROW Rybnik
63%

Winning margin

Gać Oława wins by 2+
19%
ROW Rybnik wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Gać Oława 1+ goals
83%
Gać Oława 2+ goals
53%
Gać Oława 3+ goals
26%
ROW Rybnik 1+ goals
84%
ROW Rybnik 2+ goals
55%
ROW Rybnik 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Gać Oława (draw refunded)
48%
ROW Rybnik (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gać Oława at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.23 · 35 matches

ROW Rybnik away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gać Oława attack 1.29 + ROW Rybnik defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.78

ROW Rybnik attack 1.50 + Gać Oława defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gać Oława scores more
37%
level
22%
ROW Rybnik scores more
41%

ROW Rybnik at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "ROW Rybnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Gać Oława 1–2 ROW Rybnik

ROW Rybnik beat Gać Oława 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion w Gaciu in Gać.