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Round Rock vs Corpus Christi — USL League Two 2018

Round Rock
Round Rock
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Corpus Christi
Corpus Christi
7/13/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 18Hutto Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Round Rock27%
×Draw23%
Corpus Christi50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Round Rock
1.31
Corpus Christi
1.85

Corpus Christi creates 41% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 38 away

creates per match

Round Rock
1.10
Corpus Christi
1.61

allows per match

Round Rock
2.10
Corpus Christi
1.53

finishing

Round Rock+0.00on par
Corpus Christi+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Round Rock ↓

Corpus Christi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Round Rock or draw
50%
Round Rock or Corpus Christi
77%
Draw or Corpus Christi
73%

Winning margin

Round Rock wins by 2+
12%
Corpus Christi wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Round Rock 1+ goals
73%
Round Rock 2+ goals
38%
Round Rock 3+ goals
14%
Corpus Christi 1+ goals
84%
Corpus Christi 2+ goals
55%
Corpus Christi 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Round Rock (draw refunded)
35%
Corpus Christi (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Round Rock at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.10 · 20 matches

Corpus Christi away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Round Rock attack 1.10 + Corpus Christi defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Corpus Christi attack 1.61 + Round Rock defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Round Rock scores more
27%
level
23%
Corpus Christi scores more
50%

Corpus Christi at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Corpus Christi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Round Rock 4–0 Corpus Christi

Round Rock beat Corpus Christi 4-0 in USL League Two on July 13, 2023.

The match was played at Hutto Memorial Stadium in Hutto, Texas.