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Corpus Christi vs Round Rock — USL League Two 2018

Corpus Christi
Corpus Christi
FT
6 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
Round Rock
Round Rock
6/11/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 8St. John Paul II High School -Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Corpus Christi72%
×Draw15%
Round Rock13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corpus Christi
3.02
Round Rock
1.23

Corpus Christi creates 146% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 20 away

creates per match

Corpus Christi
2.89
Round Rock
1.25

allows per match

Corpus Christi
1.20
Round Rock
3.15

finishing

Corpus Christi+0.00on par
Round Rock+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corpus Christi ↓

Round Rock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Corpus Christi or draw
87%
Corpus Christi or Round Rock
85%
Draw or Round Rock
28%

Winning margin

Corpus Christi wins by 2+
53%
Round Rock wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Corpus Christi 1+ goals
95%
Corpus Christi 2+ goals
80%
Corpus Christi 3+ goals
57%
Round Rock 1+ goals
71%
Round Rock 2+ goals
35%
Round Rock 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Corpus Christi (draw refunded)
85%
Round Rock (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corpus Christi at home — creates 2.89, concedes 1.20 · 35 matches

Round Rock away — creates 1.25, concedes 3.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corpus Christi attack 2.89 + Round Rock defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 3.02

Round Rock attack 1.25 + Corpus Christi defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Corpus Christi scores more
72%
level
15%
Round Rock scores more
13%

Corpus Christi at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Corpus Christi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Corpus Christi 6–0 Round Rock

Corpus Christi beat Round Rock 6-0 in USL League Two on June 11, 2023.

The match was played at St. John Paul II High School -Stadium in Corpus Christi, Texas.