Degerfors IF 0–2 Falkenbergs FF: Result & Stats

Degerfors IF

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Falkenbergs FF

6/25/2018

Superettan · Round 14Stora Valla (Degerfors)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Degerfors IF46%

×Draw23%

Falkenbergs FF31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Degerfors IFExpected goals in this matchFalkenbergs FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.39

Degerfors IF

1.75

Falkenbergs FF

1.39

Degerfors IF creates 26% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 54 away

1.93

creates per match

1.61

1.17

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Degerfors IF

1.93

Falkenbergs FF

1.61

allows per match

Degerfors IF

1.17

Falkenbergs FF

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Degerfors IF ↓

Falkenbergs FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Degerfors IF or draw

69%

Degerfors IF or Falkenbergs FF

77%

Draw or Falkenbergs FF

54%

Winning margin

Degerfors IF wins by 2+

25%

Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Degerfors IF 1+ goals

83%

Degerfors IF 2+ goals

52%

Degerfors IF 3+ goals

25%

Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals

75%

Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals

40%

Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)

60%

Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Degerfors IF at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.17 · 60 matches

Falkenbergs FF away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.57 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Degerfors IF attack 1.93 + Falkenbergs FF defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.75

Falkenbergs FF attack 1.61 + Degerfors IF defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Degerfors IF scores more

46%

level

23%

Falkenbergs FF scores more

31%

Degerfors IF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff