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Falkenbergs FF vs Degerfors IF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Falkenbergs FF
Falkenbergs FF
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
2/28/2021Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Vinåvallen B

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Falkenbergs FF28%
×Draw22%
Degerfors IF50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Falkenbergs FF
1.49
Degerfors IF
2.04

Degerfors IF creates 37% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 17 away

creates per match

Falkenbergs FF
1.33
Degerfors IF
2.59

allows per match

Falkenbergs FF
1.50
Degerfors IF
1.65

finishing

Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par
Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falkenbergs FF ↓

Degerfors IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Falkenbergs FF or draw
50%
Falkenbergs FF or Degerfors IF
78%
Draw or Degerfors IF
72%

Winning margin

Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+
13%
Degerfors IF wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals
77%
Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals
44%
Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals
19%
Degerfors IF 1+ goals
87%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
60%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)
36%
Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falkenbergs FF at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 2.59, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falkenbergs FF attack 1.33 + Degerfors IF defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.49

Degerfors IF attack 2.59 + Falkenbergs FF defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Falkenbergs FF scores more
28%
level
22%
Degerfors IF scores more
50%

Degerfors IF at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Falkenbergs FF vs Degerfors IF

Degerfors IF beat Falkenbergs FF 3-1 in Svenska Cupen on February 28, 2021.

The match was played at Vinåvallen B in Vinberg.