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Rottenmann vs Leoben — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Rottenmann
Rottenmann
FT
0 – 0
Leoben
Leoben
9/26/2020Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 6Paltenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Rottenmann41%
×Draw22%
Leoben37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rottenmann
1.81
Leoben
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 41 away

creates per match

Rottenmann
1.47
Leoben
1.46

allows per match

Rottenmann
1.97
Leoben
2.15

finishing

Rottenmann+0.00on par
Leoben+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rottenmann ↓

Leoben →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Rottenmann or draw
63%
Rottenmann or Leoben
78%
Draw or Leoben
59%

Winning margin

Rottenmann wins by 2+
22%
Leoben wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Rottenmann 1+ goals
84%
Rottenmann 2+ goals
54%
Rottenmann 3+ goals
27%
Leoben 1+ goals
82%
Leoben 2+ goals
51%
Leoben 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Rottenmann (draw refunded)
53%
Leoben (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rottenmann at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

Leoben away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.15 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rottenmann attack 1.47 + Leoben defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.81

Leoben attack 1.46 + Rottenmann defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rottenmann scores more
41%
level
22%
Leoben scores more
37%

Rottenmann at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rottenmann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rottenmann vs Leoben

Rottenmann and Leoben drew 0-0 in Landesliga - Steiermark on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Paltenstadion in Rottenmann.