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Leoben vs Rottenmann — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Leoben
Leoben
CANC
00:00
Rottenmann
Rottenmann
4/3/2020Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 19Stadion Donawitz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Leoben55%
×Draw21%
Rottenmann24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leoben
2.08
Rottenmann
1.30

Leoben creates 60% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 27 away

creates per match

Leoben
2.00
Rottenmann
1.19

allows per match

Leoben
1.42
Rottenmann
2.15

finishing

Leoben+0.00on par
Rottenmann+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leoben ↓

Rottenmann →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Leoben or draw
76%
Leoben or Rottenmann
79%
Draw or Rottenmann
45%

Winning margin

Leoben wins by 2+
33%
Rottenmann wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Leoben 1+ goals
87%
Leoben 2+ goals
61%
Leoben 3+ goals
34%
Rottenmann 1+ goals
73%
Rottenmann 2+ goals
37%
Rottenmann 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Leoben (draw refunded)
70%
Rottenmann (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leoben at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.42 · 45 matches

Rottenmann away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.15 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leoben attack 2.00 + Rottenmann defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.08

Rottenmann attack 1.19 + Leoben defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Leoben scores more
55%
level
21%
Rottenmann scores more
24%

Leoben at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Leoben will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Leoben host Rottenmann

April 3, 2020: Leoben take on Rottenmann in Landesliga - Steiermark. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Leoben host Rottenmann at Stadion Donawitz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.