Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rotor Volgograd vs Spartak Kostroma — First League 2024

Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
Preview
15:00
Spartak Kostroma
Spartak Kostroma
4/3/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 25Volgograd Arena
43%
Rotor Volgograd
model favours
43%27%30%

Rotor Volgograd win just 24% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rotor Volgograd43%
×Draw27%
Spartak Kostroma30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotor Volgograd
1.37
Spartak Kostroma
1.11

Rotor Volgograd creates 23% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 17 away

creates per match

Rotor Volgograd
1.33
Spartak Kostroma
1.53

allows per match

Rotor Volgograd
0.69
Spartak Kostroma
1.41

finishing

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par
Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor Volgograd ↓

Spartak Kostroma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rotor Volgograd or draw
70%
Rotor Volgograd or Spartak Kostroma
73%
Draw or Spartak Kostroma
57%

Winning margin

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
20%
Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
75%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
40%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
16%
Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals
67%
Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals
30%
Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
58%
Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor Volgograd at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.69 · 39 matches

Spartak Kostroma away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.33 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.37

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.53 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rotor Volgograd scores more
43%
level
27%
Spartak Kostroma scores more
30%

Rotor Volgograd at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Rotor Volgograd sit 15, Spartak Kostroma 4 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Volgograd
LLW
Kostroma
WLLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rotor Volgograd face Spartak Kostroma (First League)

First League returns with Rotor Volgograd hosting Spartak Kostroma. Match starts April 3, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Rotor Volgograd host Spartak Kostroma at Volgograd Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.