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Rotor Volgograd vs Mordovia Saransk — First League 2018

Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mordovia Saransk
Mordovia Saransk
10/20/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 17Volgograd Arena (Volgograd)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Rotor Volgograd47%
×Draw27%
Mordovia Saransk26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotor Volgograd
1.42
Mordovia Saransk
0.99

Rotor Volgograd creates 43% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 36 away

creates per match

Rotor Volgograd
1.22
Mordovia Saransk
1.00

allows per match

Rotor Volgograd
0.99
Mordovia Saransk
1.61

finishing

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par
Mordovia Saransk+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor Volgograd ↓

Mordovia Saransk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rotor Volgograd or draw
74%
Rotor Volgograd or Mordovia Saransk
73%
Draw or Mordovia Saransk
53%

Winning margin

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
23%
Mordovia Saransk wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
76%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
41%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
17%
Mordovia Saransk 1+ goals
63%
Mordovia Saransk 2+ goals
26%
Mordovia Saransk 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
64%
Mordovia Saransk (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor Volgograd at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.99 · 86 matches

Mordovia Saransk away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.61 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.22 + Mordovia Saransk defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.42

Mordovia Saransk attack 1.00 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rotor Volgograd scores more
47%
level
27%
Mordovia Saransk scores more
26%

Rotor Volgograd at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rotor Volgograd vs Mordovia Saransk

Rotor Volgograd and Mordovia Saransk drew 1-1 in First League on October 20, 2018.

The match was played at Volgograd Arena (Volgograd).