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Mordovia Saransk vs Rotor Volgograd — First League 2018

Mordovia Saransk
Mordovia Saransk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
5/4/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 35Mordovia Arena (Saransk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Mordovia Saransk28%
×Draw30%
Rotor Volgograd42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mordovia Saransk
0.88
Rotor Volgograd
1.15

Rotor Volgograd creates 31% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 87 away

creates per match

Mordovia Saransk
0.81
Rotor Volgograd
1.06

allows per match

Mordovia Saransk
1.24
Rotor Volgograd
0.95

finishing

Mordovia Saransk+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mordovia Saransk ↓

Rotor Volgograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mordovia Saransk or draw
58%
Mordovia Saransk or Rotor Volgograd
70%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd
72%

Winning margin

Mordovia Saransk wins by 2+
9%
Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Mordovia Saransk 1+ goals
59%
Mordovia Saransk 2+ goals
22%
Mordovia Saransk 3+ goals
6%
Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
68%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
32%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mordovia Saransk (draw refunded)
40%
Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mordovia Saransk at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.24 · 37 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.95 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mordovia Saransk attack 0.81 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.88

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.06 + Mordovia Saransk defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mordovia Saransk scores more
28%
level
30%
Rotor Volgograd scores more
42%

Rotor Volgograd at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Mordovia Saransk 1–0 Rotor Volgograd

Mordovia Saransk beat Rotor Volgograd 1-0 in First League on May 4, 2019.

The match was played at Mordovia Arena (Saransk).