Rotor Volgograd 2–1 FK Neftekhimik: Result & Stats

Rotor Volgograd

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FK Neftekhimik

N. Kipiani 68', 7'

V. Galiulin 69'

3/26/2022

First League · Round 29Volgograd Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Rotor Volgograd39%

×Draw29%

FK Neftekhimik32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rotor VolgogradExpected goals in this matchFK Neftekhimik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.04

Rotor Volgograd

1.18

FK Neftekhimik

1.04

Rotor Volgograd creates 13% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 122 away

1.19

creates per match

1.11

0.98

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Rotor Volgograd

1.19

FK Neftekhimik

1.11

allows per match

Rotor Volgograd

0.98

FK Neftekhimik

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor Volgograd ↓

FK Neftekhimik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Rotor Volgograd or draw

68%

Rotor Volgograd or FK Neftekhimik

71%

Draw or FK Neftekhimik

61%

Winning margin

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

17%

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

69%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

33%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

12%

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals

65%

FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals

28%

FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

55%

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor Volgograd at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.98 · 85 matches

FK Neftekhimik away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.17 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.19 + FK Neftekhimik defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.18

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.11 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rotor Volgograd scores more

39%

level

29%

FK Neftekhimik scores more

32%

Rotor Volgograd at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

31'

37'

40'

44'

46'

I. Shkolik← I. Oulad Omar

46'

K. Rodionov← D. Talalay

46'

A. Terekhov← A. Kotik

64'

B. Kavtaradze← I. Shkolik

68'

N. Kipiani

69'

V. Galiulin

71'

Aslan Dudiev

77'

M. Sitdikov← P. Kotov

77'

N. Kalugin← A. Berdnikov

87'

P. Baranov← K. Rodionov

90+3'

Sergey Makarov

90+3'

David Khubaev

90+1'

S. Slepov← R. Minaev

90+2'

S. Serchenkov← N. Kipiani

90+1'

I. Golosov← D. Pelikh

Rotor4-2-3-1

FK4-3-1-2

11

▼

10

73

15

19

▼

Talalay

21

⚽

Galiulin

12

Shiryaev

70

▼

Berdnikov

77

▼

16

27

96

2

▼

31

22

28

7

⚽2

▼

Kipiani

13

Makarov

6

▼

Omar

9

Chukanov

8

Makhatadz

10

▼

Minaev

Manager: A. Kulikov

46'▲I. Shkolik←▼I. Oulad Omar

64'▲B. Kavtaradze←▼I. Shkolik

90+1'▲S. Slepov←▼R. Minaev

90+2'▲S. Serchenkov←▼N. Kipiani

90+1'▲I. Golosov←▼D. Pelikh

Rotor Volgograd substitutes

20Shkolik17Kavtaradze5Slepov11Serchenkov61Golosov1Ternovskiy14Pervushin19Abdullaev77Tashaev85Mokhbaliev

Manager: K. Novikov

46'▲K. Rodionov←▼D. Talalay

46'▲A. Terekhov←▼A. Kotik

77'▲M. Sitdikov←▼P. Kotov

77'▲N. Kalugin←▼A. Berdnikov

87'▲P. Baranov←▼K. Rodionov

FK Neftekhimik substitutes

22Rodionov98Terekhov2Sitdikov44Kalugin8Baranov18Isupov24Mršulja37Danilin65Moskvichev

First League: Rotor Volgograd 2–1 FK Neftekhimik

Rotor Volgograd beat FK Neftekhimik 2-1 in First League on March 26, 2022.

Goals: N. Kipiani (7', 68'), V. Galiulin (69').

The match was played at Volgograd Arena in Volgograd.

Rotor Volgograd vs FK Neftekhimik — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Rotor Volgograd 2–1 FK Neftekhimik