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FK Neftekhimik vs Rotor Volgograd — First League 2018

FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
10/5/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 13Neftekhimik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

FK Neftekhimik39%
×Draw30%
Rotor Volgograd32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Neftekhimik
1.14
Rotor Volgograd
1.00

FK Neftekhimik creates 14% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 87 away

creates per match

FK Neftekhimik
1.33
Rotor Volgograd
1.06

allows per match

FK Neftekhimik
0.95
Rotor Volgograd
0.95

finishing

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Neftekhimik ↓

Rotor Volgograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FK Neftekhimik or draw
68%
FK Neftekhimik or Rotor Volgograd
70%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd
61%

Winning margin

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
16%
Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
68%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
32%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
11%
Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
63%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
26%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
55%
Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Neftekhimik at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.95 · 122 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.95 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.33 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.14

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.06 + FK Neftekhimik defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FK Neftekhimik scores more
39%
level
30%
Rotor Volgograd scores more
32%

FK Neftekhimik at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FK Neftekhimik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
D. Sukhomlinov← D. Kokoev
46'
A. Khokhlachev← D. Davidyan
55'
Maksim Shiryaev
65'
S. Dzhamilov← A. Nikitin
65'
I. Mashukov← R. Magomedov
65'
M. Maltsev← M. Kaynov
70'
A. Korotkov← D. Fomin
75'
Aleksandr Khohlachev
75'
D. Lavrishchev← A. Simonyan
75'
D. Sasin← I. Safronov
82'
D. Mikhaylov← K. Shiltsov

Statistics

FKRotor
Discipline
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

First League: FK Neftekhimik 0–0 Rotor Volgograd

FK Neftekhimik and Rotor Volgograd drew 0-0 in First League on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Neftekhimik Stadium in Nizhnekamsk.