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Rotor Volgograd vs Enisey — First League 2024

Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
Preview
15:00
Enisey
Enisey
9/12/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 11Volgograd Arena
Big match
47%
Rotor Volgograd
model favours
47%28%25%

Rotor Volgograd win just 24% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Rotor Volgograd47%
×Draw28%
Enisey25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotor Volgograd
1.35
Enisey
0.90

Rotor Volgograd creates 50% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 42 away

creates per match

Rotor Volgograd
1.33
Enisey
1.10

allows per match

Rotor Volgograd
0.69
Enisey
1.38

finishing

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par
Enisey+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor Volgograd ↓

Enisey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rotor Volgograd or draw
75%
Rotor Volgograd or Enisey
72%
Draw or Enisey
53%

Winning margin

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
22%
Enisey wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
74%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
39%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
15%
Enisey 1+ goals
59%
Enisey 2+ goals
23%
Enisey 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
65%
Enisey (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor Volgograd at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.69 · 39 matches

Enisey away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.38 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.33 + Enisey defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Enisey attack 1.10 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rotor Volgograd scores more
47%
level
28%
Enisey scores more
25%

Rotor Volgograd at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Volgograd
LLW
Enisey
WDWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rotor Volgograd face Enisey (First League)

First League returns with Rotor Volgograd hosting Enisey. Match starts September 12, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Rotor Volgograd host Enisey at Volgograd Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.