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Enisey vs Rotor Volgograd — First League 2018

Enisey
Enisey
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
11/30/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 21Tsentralnyi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Enisey40%
×Draw29%
Rotor Volgograd31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enisey
1.22
Rotor Volgograd
1.04

Enisey creates 17% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 87 away

creates per match

Enisey
1.49
Rotor Volgograd
1.06

allows per match

Enisey
1.02
Rotor Volgograd
0.95

finishing

Enisey+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enisey ↓

Rotor Volgograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Enisey or draw
69%
Enisey or Rotor Volgograd
71%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd
60%

Winning margin

Enisey wins by 2+
17%
Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Enisey 1+ goals
70%
Enisey 2+ goals
34%
Enisey 3+ goals
12%
Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
65%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
28%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Enisey (draw refunded)
56%
Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enisey at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.02 · 122 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.95 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enisey attack 1.49 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.22

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.06 + Enisey defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Enisey scores more
40%
level
29%
Rotor Volgograd scores more
31%

Enisey at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Enisey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
Émerson
37'
Ilya Safronov
45+2'
S. Antipin← E. Shamov
62'
A. Batyrev← A. Pogosov
62'
A. Khashkulov← I. Zazvonkin
65'
Artem Gyurdzhan
65'
K. Nikishin← I. Aznaurov
65'
D. Lavrishchev← A. Khokhlachev
78'
D. Davidyan← I. Safronov
83'
V. Krotov← A. Nadolskiy
83'
O. Kenfak← A. Mazurin
85'
M. Maltsev← M. Kaynov
90+1'
Amir Batyrev

Statistics

EniseyRotor
Discipline
3Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

First League: Enisey 0–0 Rotor Volgograd

Enisey and Rotor Volgograd drew 0-0 in First League on November 30, 2025.

The match was played at Tsentralnyi Stadion in Krasnoyarsk.