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Rotor Volgograd vs Enisey — First League 2018

Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Enisey
Enisey
A. Kleshchenko 69'
M. Turishchev 62' (pen)
I. Kukharchuk 8'
5/4/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 31Volgograd Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Rotor Volgograd44%
×Draw28%
Enisey28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotor Volgograd
1.32
Enisey
1.00

Rotor Volgograd creates 32% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 125 away

creates per match

Rotor Volgograd
1.22
Enisey
1.02

allows per match

Rotor Volgograd
0.99
Enisey
1.42

finishing

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par
Enisey+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor Volgograd ↓

Enisey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rotor Volgograd or draw
72%
Rotor Volgograd or Enisey
72%
Draw or Enisey
56%

Winning margin

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
20%
Enisey wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
73%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
38%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
15%
Enisey 1+ goals
63%
Enisey 2+ goals
26%
Enisey 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
61%
Enisey (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor Volgograd at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.99 · 86 matches

Enisey away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.42 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.22 + Enisey defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.32

Enisey attack 1.02 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rotor Volgograd scores more
44%
level
28%
Enisey scores more
28%

Rotor Volgograd at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
I. Kukharchuk
26'
Nikita Plotnikov
35'
M. Turishchev← I. Kukharchuk
62'
M. TurishchevPenalty
64'
Y. Zavezen← M. Maltsev
64'
V. Morozov← V. Tyurin
64'
G. Shilnikov← N. Plotnikov
66'
D. Tikhonov← A. Batyrev
66'
A. Kanaplin← A. Lomakin
66'
O. Kenfack← A. Mazurin
66'
N. Bogatyrev← I. Zazvonkin
69'
A. Kleshchenko
74'
Evgeniy Bolotov
78'
D. Talikin← E. Bolotov
81'
A. Dolgov← A. Okladnikov
89'
Aleksey Shumskikh

Statistics

RotorEnisey
Discipline
3Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0

First League: Rotor Volgograd 3–0 Enisey

Rotor Volgograd beat Enisey 3-0 in First League on May 4, 2025.

Goals: I. Kukharchuk (8'), M. Turishchev (62' pen), A. Kleshchenko (69').

The match was played at Volgograd Arena in Volgograd.