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Rotor Volgograd vs Biolog — Second League - Group 1 2020

Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Biolog
Biolog
5/7/2023Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 1Volgograd Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rotor Volgograd52%
×Draw24%
Biolog23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotor Volgograd
1.66
Biolog
1.02

Rotor Volgograd creates 63% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 73 away

creates per match

Rotor Volgograd
1.73
Biolog
1.30

allows per match

Rotor Volgograd
0.73
Biolog
1.59

finishing

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par
Biolog+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor Volgograd ↓

Biolog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rotor Volgograd or draw
77%
Rotor Volgograd or Biolog
76%
Draw or Biolog
48%

Winning margin

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
28%
Biolog wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
81%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
49%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
23%
Biolog 1+ goals
64%
Biolog 2+ goals
27%
Biolog 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
69%
Biolog (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor Volgograd at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Biolog away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.59 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.73 + Biolog defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.66

Biolog attack 1.30 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Rotor Volgograd scores more
52%
level
24%
Biolog scores more
23%

Rotor Volgograd at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Rotor Volgograd 3–0 Biolog

Rotor Volgograd beat Biolog 3-0 in Second League - Group 1 on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Volgograd Arena in Volgograd.