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Biolog vs Rotor Volgograd — Second League - Group 1 2020

Biolog
Biolog
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
11/4/2022Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Stadion Biolog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Biolog27%
×Draw24%
Rotor Volgograd49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Biolog
1.22
Rotor Volgograd
1.73

Rotor Volgograd creates 42% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 15 away

creates per match

Biolog
1.64
Rotor Volgograd
2.00

allows per match

Biolog
1.45
Rotor Volgograd
0.80

finishing

Biolog+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biolog ↓

Rotor Volgograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Biolog or draw
51%
Biolog or Rotor Volgograd
76%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd
73%

Winning margin

Biolog wins by 2+
11%
Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Biolog 1+ goals
70%
Biolog 2+ goals
34%
Biolog 3+ goals
12%
Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
82%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
52%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Biolog (draw refunded)
35%
Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biolog at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.45 · 73 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biolog attack 1.64 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.22

Rotor Volgograd attack 2.00 + Biolog defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Biolog scores more
27%
level
24%
Rotor Volgograd scores more
49%

Rotor Volgograd at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Biolog vs Rotor Volgograd

Biolog and Rotor Volgograd drew 2-2 in Second League - Group 1 on November 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Biolog in Progress.