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Rotor Volgograd vs Baltika — First League 2018

Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Baltika
Baltika
8/14/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 6Volgograd Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Rotor Volgograd34%
×Draw28%
Baltika38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotor Volgograd
1.10
Baltika
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 109 away

creates per match

Rotor Volgograd
1.20
Baltika
1.34

allows per match

Rotor Volgograd
1.01
Baltika
1.00

finishing

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor Volgograd ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rotor Volgograd or draw
62%
Rotor Volgograd or Baltika
72%
Draw or Baltika
66%

Winning margin

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
13%
Baltika wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
67%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
30%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
10%
Baltika 1+ goals
69%
Baltika 2+ goals
33%
Baltika 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
47%
Baltika (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor Volgograd at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.01 · 88 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.00 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.20 + Baltika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Baltika attack 1.34 + Rotor Volgograd defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rotor Volgograd scores more
34%
level
28%
Baltika scores more
38%

Baltika at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Rotor Volgograd 1–1 Baltika

Rotor Volgograd and Baltika drew 1-1 in First League on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Volgograd Arena in Volgograd.