Baltika 0–0 Rotor Volgograd: Result & Stats

Baltika

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rotor Volgograd

3/10/2025

First League · Round 23Rostec Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Baltika40%

×Draw30%

Rotor Volgograd30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaltikaExpected goals in this matchRotor Volgograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.91

Baltika

1.11

Rotor Volgograd

0.91

Baltika creates 22% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 88 away

1.27

creates per match

1.06

0.75

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Baltika

1.27

Rotor Volgograd

1.06

allows per match

Baltika

0.75

Rotor Volgograd

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Rotor Volgograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Baltika or draw

70%

Baltika or Rotor Volgograd

70%

Draw or Rotor Volgograd

60%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+

16%

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals

67%

Baltika 2+ goals

30%

Baltika 3+ goals

10%

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

60%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

23%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)

57%

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.75 · 108 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.95 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.27 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.11

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.06 + Baltika defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Baltika scores more

40%

level

30%

Rotor Volgograd scores more

30%

Baltika at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

Zaurbek Pliev

19'

Sergey Pryakhin

38'

Aleksey Shumskikh

46'

K. Nikishin← S. Pryakhin

46'

N. Titkov← I. Petrov

46'

M. Shvetsov← A. Shumskikh

55'

E. Chernov← A. Mokhammad

55'

B. Gil← A. Eldarushev

61'

T. Kasimov← M. Maltsev

61'

I. Kukharchuk← M. Turishchev

68'

M. Petrov← V. Lisakovich

71'

I. Safronov← S. Makarov

78'

Andrey Semenov

82'

Ilya Safronov

85'

Nikolay Titkov

Statistics

BaltikaRotor

Discipline

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0