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Rotor Volgograd vs Akhmat Grozny — Cup 2019

Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Akhmat Grozny
Akhmat Grozny
10/27/2021CupCup · Group Stage - 4Volgograd Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Rotor Volgograd51%
×Draw26%
Akhmat Grozny22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotor Volgograd
1.51
Akhmat Grozny
0.90

Rotor Volgograd creates 68% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 21 away

creates per match

Rotor Volgograd
1.50
Akhmat Grozny
1.29

allows per match

Rotor Volgograd
0.50
Akhmat Grozny
1.52

finishing

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par
Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor Volgograd ↓

Akhmat Grozny →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rotor Volgograd or draw
78%
Rotor Volgograd or Akhmat Grozny
74%
Draw or Akhmat Grozny
49%

Winning margin

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
26%
Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
78%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
44%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
19%
Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals
59%
Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals
23%
Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
70%
Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor Volgograd at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Akhmat Grozny away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.50 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.51

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.29 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rotor Volgograd scores more
51%
level
26%
Akhmat Grozny scores more
22%

Rotor Volgograd at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rotor Volgograd vs Akhmat Grozny

Rotor Volgograd and Akhmat Grozny drew 1-1 in Cup on October 27, 2021.

The match was played at Volgograd Arena in Volgograd.