Rotor Volgograd 1–0 Akhmat Grozny: Result & Stats

Rotor Volgograd

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Akhmat Grozny

5/1/2021

Premier League · Round 28Volgograd Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Rotor Volgograd26%

×Draw29%

Akhmat Grozny46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rotor VolgogradExpected goals in this matchAkhmat Grozny

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

1.29

Rotor Volgograd

0.89

Akhmat Grozny

1.29

Akhmat Grozny creates 45% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 121 away

0.31

creates per match

1.01

1.56

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Rotor Volgograd

0.31

Akhmat Grozny

1.01

allows per match

Rotor Volgograd

1.56

Akhmat Grozny

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor Volgograd ↓

Akhmat Grozny →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–115%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Rotor Volgograd or draw

54%

Rotor Volgograd or Akhmat Grozny

71%

Draw or Akhmat Grozny

74%

Winning margin

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

9%

Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

59%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

22%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

6%

Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals

72%

Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals

37%

Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

36%

Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor Volgograd at home — creates 0.31, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Akhmat Grozny away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.47 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor Volgograd attack 0.31 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 0.89

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.01 + Rotor Volgograd defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rotor Volgograd scores more

26%

level

29%

Akhmat Grozny scores more

46%

Akhmat Grozny at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Akhmat Grozny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff