Rotkreuz 2–2 Besa Biel/Bienne: Result & Stats

Rotkreuz

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Besa Biel/Bienne

8/3/2024

1. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Sportpark Rotkreuz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Rotkreuz52%

×Draw22%

Besa Biel/Bienne25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotkreuzExpected goals in this matchBesa Biel/Bienne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.25

Rotkreuz

1.90

Besa Biel/Bienne

1.25

Rotkreuz creates 52% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

1.62

creates per match

1.03

1.47

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Rotkreuz

1.62

Besa Biel/Bienne

1.03

allows per match

Rotkreuz

1.47

Besa Biel/Bienne

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rotkreuz+0.00on par

Besa Biel/Bienne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotkreuz ↓

Besa Biel/Bienne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Rotkreuz or draw

75%

Rotkreuz or Besa Biel/Bienne

78%

Draw or Besa Biel/Bienne

48%

Winning margin

Rotkreuz wins by 2+

30%

Besa Biel/Bienne wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rotkreuz 1+ goals

85%

Rotkreuz 2+ goals

56%

Rotkreuz 3+ goals

29%

Besa Biel/Bienne 1+ goals

71%

Besa Biel/Bienne 2+ goals

36%

Besa Biel/Bienne 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Rotkreuz (draw refunded)

68%

Besa Biel/Bienne (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotkreuz at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

Besa Biel/Bienne away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotkreuz attack 1.62 + Besa Biel/Bienne defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.90

Besa Biel/Bienne attack 1.03 + Rotkreuz defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Rotkreuz scores more

52%

level

22%

Besa Biel/Bienne scores more

25%

Rotkreuz at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Rotkreuz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff